Everyone talks about New York's exodus.
The wealthy fleeing. Tax refugees. Billionaires abandoning the city.
I see the actual numbers. They tell a different story.
Between 2018 and 2022, over 30,000 New Yorkers relocated to South Florida, bringing $9.2 billion in income. Palm Beach County alone gained 20,000 newcomers averaging $190,000 per capita income.
That sounds like a wealth exodus, right?
Here's what the data actually shows. The top 1% of New Yorkers move out at one-quarter the rate of everyone else during typical years. Florida was more popular with middle-class New Yorkers than millionaires.
The narrative doesn't match the movement.
Political commentary focuses on billionaire relocations. Those make headlines. But they have been outliers, not trends. The trend may soon see a spike.
The real wealth transfer involves successful professionals, not ultra-high-net-worth individuals. People earning $190,000 to $500,000. Dual-income households. Business owners. Mid-level executives.
They're moving for lifestyle as much as taxes.
I work with buyers in this exact demographic. Former New Yorkers who want space, weather, and yes, lower taxes. But they're not running from policy. They're running toward opportunity.
South Florida's luxury market reflects this reality. In Miami-Dade alone, there were 28 sales of single-family homes priced over $3,000 per square foot from January to July 2025. That's a 115% jump from 2024.
Before the pandemic in 2019, there were zero sales in that bracket.
That's not panic buying. That's strategic positioning.
The wealthiest New Yorkers usually stay put more than people realize. They have deep professional networks. Cultural ties. Business infrastructure that doesn't easily relocate. There will be the daring ones who will leave New York for several reasons, one of which may be the results of the upcoming NYC Mayoral race.
When they do move, it's calculated. They're buying luxury pre-construction opportunities in developments like the Ritz-Carlton Residences in Palm Beach Gardens, the Waldorf Astoria Residences in Pompano Beach, and the Bentley in Sunny Isles.
These aren't distress purchases. They're portfolio additions.
The middle-class and upper-middle-class migration creates the volume. The ultra-wealthy create the price ceiling. Both groups drive South Florida's transformation, but for different reasons.
Understanding this distinction matters if you're considering relocation or investment.
The political rhetoric creates noise. The market data reveals the momentum of movement. Keep an eye on the data.
As someone who guides high-net-worth individuals through South Florida's luxury markets, I see both groups. The $500,000 earner seeking better value. The $5 million earner seeking strategic diversification.
Neither is fleeing. Both are optimizing.
The migration from New York continues. But it's more nuanced than headlines suggest. It's not about abandoning one place for another. It's about positioning for the next several decades.
That requires looking past the commentary to see what's actually moving.
